LONDON: Opec’s oil supply in October has fallen by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to lower production in Angola and Nigeria, a Reuters survey found, although recovery in Libya and growth in Iraq kept output close to September’s two-year high.
The survey also indicates Saudi Arabia and heavyweight Gulf producers are showing no sign of deliberately cutting exports to address oversupply and support prices that slipped to a four-year low below $83 a barrel this month.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, Opec and consultants.
Opec pumps a third of the world’s oil and meets in November to set output policy for early 2015. Despite oil’s drop below $100, the price many Opec members had endorsed, the group appears unwilling to forego market share by cutting supplies.
“The big question for me is will Opec be willing to reduce its supply sufficiently to rebalance the market next year,” Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in the Reuters Global Oil Forum. “I have doubts.”
September’s output was Opec’s highest since November 2012, when it pumped 31.06 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys. Involuntary outages, such as in Libya, kept output below OPEC’s nominal 30 million bpd target in earlier months of the year.
Lower exports scheduling from Angola and Nigeria reduced supplies by a combined 100,000 bpd, while Saudi output was assessed a marginal 50,000 bpd lower due to a reduced need for crude to fuel domestic power plants.
“Exports are flat, refinery runs are not much changed and direct burn lower, so overall supply is down,” said one of the sources who monitors Saudi output.
The shutdown of the Khafji oilfield slightly curbed Kuwaiti output but has not affected Saudi production as Riyadh holds a vast amount of capacity in reserve, sources in the survey said.
Reuters
