File photo for representation purposes only. Aerial view of brine ponds and processing areas of the lithium mine of the Chilean company SQM (Sociedad Quimica Minera) in the Atacama Desert, Calama, Chile, on September 12, 2022. Photo by Martin BERNETTI / AFP
Dakar: The International Monetary Fund forecast economic growth of five percent for Mali in 2025, partly driven by new lithium production, despite conflict, floods and declining foreign aid.
Mali has been ruled by a military junta following two coups earlier this decade and is mired in violence carried out by jihadist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group.
An IMF mission to Bamako noted its economy "has shown some resilience despite significant headwinds", in a statement released late Thursday.
It said economic growth is expected to reach five percent in 2025 thanks to "strong agricultural production, the start of lithium extraction and continued growth in services".
The agricultural sector employs nearly 80 percent of the working population and contributes to nearly 40 percent of GDP, according to official figures.
In May, the head of Mali's junta, General Assimi Goita, praised the agricultural sector's resilience in the face of flooding that destroyed crops in nearly five percent of sown areas.
The ruling military has turned its back on France and several western partners while pivoting towards Russia, which has sent mercenary fighters to help the country in its battle against jihadists.
Several former partners have suspended development aid to Mali as a result of its alliance with Moscow.
"The decrease in foreign aid, lower gold production and the shutdown of the largest mine weigh negatively on the outlook," the IMF said.
The junta took operational control of the country's largest gold mine, Loulo-Gounkoto, in June from Canadian company Barrick, demanding hundreds of millions of dollars in back taxes it says are due under a new mining code.
"Contingent on mining activities returning to normal levels, growth is expected to rebound to 5.4 percent in 2026," the IMF said.
At the end of 2024, Mali inaugurated its first lithium mine in the south, operated by Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium. Another lithium mine is about to begin production in the same region, operated by the British company Kodal Minerals.
