One of the biggest deficiencies of our development — particularly in the Gulf countries — is that we do not give a thought to our future while we enjoy wealth and high incomes today. We rarely have alternatives ready when push comes to shove. That’s the status of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and many Arab and Muslim countries today, following the sudden and continuous decline in oil prices.
Unfortunately, it is a part of our culture to think that problems can be solved by talking and arguing. We rarely take initiatives to change our lives and economic condition and thereby find solutions to our problems.
How many lectures and workshops we attend to find solutions to our problems! By the time they are over we forget their content! How many suggestions and recommendations are signed in this regard, but none see the light of day!
So, if solutions to our social and cultural problems can be delayed, how is this procrastination, which has been going on for decades, helping us? We need to come up with more ideas to develop an economy that is not based on oil alone; an economy that has financial resources that are more stable and less risky than oil.
Will we have the same standard of living if the oil price declines to $30 a barrel or lower? And what if this scenario lasts 10 years or more? Will we wait to fix our situation until we find ourselves on the edge? Probably no one would respond to such a worrying issue, not Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or any other Arab oil exporting country.
People in our region have heard these warnings more than once before. When the prices increased, as has happened in the past, the money piled up in safes in Asia and Europe, to be spent at random.
Our economies will be in a very tragic situation if these warnings come true.
It is not easy to find a resource that can compete with oil, especially one whose price will increase significantly with demand. Also, not every country in the Gulf can be turned into an emirate like Dubai.
Moreover, there is no sign that we will be able, in the near future, to develop the educational systems in the Gulf and Arab region, focus on developing our human resources, or imitate the Asians in this field.
Meanwhile, our media outlets will start a new blame game, even as they continuously warn that no organisation or person in charge is attending to this problem.
Indeed, people in the Gulf are not the only ones who are going to face this crisis, as other Arab countries are sinking into civil wars, like in Libya, while still others are busy fighting terrorism, like Iraq, or trying to find a way out, like Algeria.
Marwan Salama, an expert at the Al Sharq Centre for Consultancy, said: “Nigeria is contorting due to the huge decline in oil prices, since the oil sector provides 80 percent of the government’s revenues.”
Salama also commented on Iran, saying: “It would need to risk its regional status or it may launch wars, which definitely will lead to a big increase in oil prices.”
This is a card in Iran’s hand, but Russia is better at this game, since the latter is a key international player. Russia, as Salama noted, has been under siege for a long time, with the economic sanctions imposed on it by the West squeezing it hard, causing a major decline in the Russian currency (Source: Al Qabas, December 28, 2014).
The question is, is the decline in the former superpower’s economy and currency a consolation for us? Oil and gas constitute around 16 percent of the total income of Russia, and 52 percent of the revenues of its federal government. With the decline of the Russian currency, its revenues will increase.
In any case, Russia does not use all its influence or play all its regional and international cards.
The oil crises have not yet produced Gulf research centres to find advanced ways of developing petrochemicals, or a Gulf university that would be renowned in the field of oil.
Instead, our oil-based economy is being eaten up by our luxurious lifestyle; it is being wasted instead of being put to good use.
The author is a researcher and writer
