CHAIRMAN: DR. KHALID BIN THANI AL THANI
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: PROF. KHALID MUBARAK AL-SHAFI

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Would America have invaded Iraq now?

Published: 10 Jul 2014 - 01:12 am | Last Updated: 23 Jan 2022 - 01:58 am

When George W Bush “the son” took the decision to invade Iraq in 2003, he managed support from an overwhelming number of allies. The US sent to Iraq 148,000 troops and the UK sent 38,000. Around 38 other countries contributed symbolic troops to the operation. The flags of participating countries, the uniforms of their soldiers and the weapons they carried gave us the impression that the fate of the whole world depended on the downfall of Saddam Hussein.
Even with this, the justification the US and the UK used for waging the war against Saddam Hussein could not hold in front of the opponents of the war. The world even discovered, albeit late, that this war was far from noble and just. This of course contradicted the information the media gave about the war. The war was even catastrophic for Iraq and the region for decades, if not centuries.
Now, what would Bush have done if what is known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant had appeared at the time and overran Mosul, Anbar and even more than 60 percent of Iraq? What would he have told us? Would he have visited to wage a war against this movement?
The justification Washington could give for attacking Iraq under the current situation would have been far stronger than the justifications used for waging the war against Saddam Hussein in 2003. However, Washington did not attack Iraq and did not show enough enthusiasm to launch airstrikes, or to send troops, and rather talked cautiously about the situation. When talking about the current Iraqi situation, US used words very carefully, but the question is why it needs to wage war against Iraq, in the first place?
A Canadian centre affiliated to Harvard University released a report about the cost of the war Washington waged in Afghanistan and Iraq. The report is worth reading, given that the ramifications of the two wars are still present.
The cost of the war in the two countries amounted to $6 trillion. Every American citizen paid around $75,000 for this war, which lasted for more than 10 years. The war increased the total debts of the US by 20 percent. The US had even paid $260bn as profits to its war debt so far. The total war debt interests are expected to reach $1 trillion.
The report says the two wars were the most expensive in American history. The budget of the wars was still open until the release of the report by the centre. The report says that around 1.5 million war veterans continue to receive treatment they may need for the rest of their lives.
One out of every two Americans who participated in the war has applied for a certificate to prove that he has become permanently disabled. This means that the state would be responsible for catering the needs of these disabled persons for the rest of their lives. This includes monthly financial support, and medicine, even without any contribution from these people to the society.
The budget of war veterans jumped to more than $140bn in 2003, from $61.4bn in 2001. This budget stands for 3.5 percent of the overall American budget.
After curtains fell on the two wars, Islamists emerged as a threat for the Americans in Somalia. Then piracy, which cost the world between $7 and $12bn, emerged as another threat, according to an article written by the British Ambassador in Somalia who is based in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, on the website of Foreign and Commonwealth Office.
When piracy decreased and Islamists continued to be a problem, there emerged the threat of Islamists in the Great Sahara. The US and Europe decided to put an end to this problem by forming a joint command. They also decided to monitor the activities of these Islamists with drones.
Then Islamists in Mali emerged as a new threat. France decided to take action, given the reluctance of the US to take action and its fear of being involved in a new war of attrition. The war in Mali cost ¤2.7m every day. A well-known Gulf country footed the bill. 
No sooner had the problem in Mali subsided than the crisis in Syria started. This crisis offered the chance for all Islamist movements to come to the surface. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al Nusra Front and other similar movements were on top of these Islamist movements. These movements have provoked the ire of the West and this is why it decided to stand on the fence and watch until the war in Syria destroys all the West’s enemies.
Then the ISIL suddenly appeared in Iraq. Islamist Jihadist movements cost the American budget a lot. Will the US change its ways? Will it talk with these movements to get to what they want? Will intransigence put the world in a fierce confrontation that saps its power at the end of the day?
I think America will continue to be intransigent as long as there are countries ready to foot the bill of its wars like some Gulf countries do. It will continue to be so as long as other countries are ready to help especially if American interests agree with their interests like in the case of Iran.