LONDON: Emerging markets have kicked off their 2014 borrowing campaigns in style, with bond sales since the start of the year up 64 percent from year-ago levels and hefty order books contrasting with weakness in broader emerging assets.
The Philippines weighed in with a $1.5bn bond on Friday, securing orders of $14bn, or a subscription rate of nine times, a record for the country.
Its success rounds off a week of heavy bond issuance, not only from emerging governments and companies but also from bailed-out euro zone states Ireland and Portugal which returned to debt markets with heavily oversubscribed deals.
It also extends last year’s record issuance of over $450bn by emerging borrowers. That was despite volatility fuelled by the US Federal Reserve’s plans to wind down its bond buying, although issuance could start to slow if US yields continue to rise.
This month, emerging borrowers have raised $18.5bn, compared to $11.3bn in the same period in 2013 and surpassing the $16.9bn chalked up in 2012, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Sales accounted for roughly 13 percent of total global issuance, compared to 6 percent in the first 10 days of 2013 and contrasting with the losses that emerging stocks, currencies and local debt markets are suffering already this year. Luis Costa, head of CEEMEA strategy at Citi, said the bond sales were evidence of still-robust interest from institutional investors who have cash to place at the start of the year.
“Institutional money is still participating in these markets, especially in primary (bond) auctions given the perception that you will get a premium,” Costa said, referring to the so-called new issue premium issuers generally offer to lure investors.
Other bonds from this week include Poland’s ¤2bn issue and a $4bn deal from Mexico. Slovakia also sold bonds while Kenya, Latvia, Israel and Romania have mandated for debt issues. State-run Brazilian oil firm Petrobras weighed in with a jumbo euro-sterling deal. And a dual-tranche bond from Indonesia — one of the so-called Fragile Five group of emerging economies with the biggest overseas financing needs — for a total $4bn received bids of up to five times in excess of the issue size.
Part of the recent rush to issue is motivated by the need to borrow before costs rise further. That’s especially so at emerging companies that raised more than $350bn in bonds last year and are expected to make up the bulk of 2014 issuance too.
The Federal Reserve is set to cut its bond purchases, or “taper” them, by $10bn from this month and that has pushed 10-year US Treasury yields towards near two-year highs around 3 percent. Last year, yields rose dramatically, doubling from 1.5 percent.
But with latest US jobs numbers on the weak side, markets could pare back their expectations of the speed at which the Fed will reduce its stimulus. That could spur fresh interest in new emerging market bonds.
Reuters
