A cargo ship berthing at Rizhao port in Rizhao, east China’s Shandong province. An unexpected drop in exports led to China’s trade surplus narrowing to a disappointing $15.2bn in September from $28.6bn in August, customs figures showed yesterday.
BEIJING: An unexpected drop in exports led to China’s trade surplus narrowing to a disappointing $15.2bn in September from $28.6bn in August, customs figures showed yesterday.
Exports fell 0.3 percent year-on-year to $185.64bn last month, while imports increased 7.4 percent to $170.44bn, the figures said.
The statistics could signal potential headwind for the world’s number two economy, which relies heavily on global demand for its products.
Exports in August jumped 7.2 percent year-on-year to $190.7bn. The positive figures had led analysts to point to optimism in China’s economy. However, the September trade result was worse than expected, with a survey of nine analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecasting a trade surplus of $27bn.
Analysts say China’s national holidays falling in September, along with a strong local currency, could have stalled exports.
“The mid-autumn holidays fell in the middle of the month this year, whereas it fell on the last day of the month in 2012,” ANZ analysts said in a research note.
“The strong RMB has eroded China’s export competitiveness as well,” it added. China’s Mid-Autumn Festival fell from September 19 to September 21 this year, while in 2012 the holiday ran from September 30 into October.
China’s trade performance is a key element of the country’s economic growth figures, the latest of which for the third quarter through September are due for release next Friday.
A string of strong data in recent months, including for exports and industrial output, have suggested quarterly growth may accelerate, spurring optimism following a surprise downturn during the first half of the year.
For the first nine months of the year, exports increased eight percent to $1.61 trillion, while imports increased 7.3 percent to $1.45 trillion. The trade surplus for the period stood at $169.4bn, up 14.4 percent, the figures showed. The three-quarterly figures were described as “a trend of low, yet stable growth” by Zheng Yuesheng, an official at China’s General Administration of Customs.
“Trade with the EU and Japan suggested upward momentum, as the trade with the US and Asean (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) continued to climb,” he added. China is coming off its worst annual economic performance since 1999 after gross domestic product managed an expansion of just 7.7 percent last year.
Authorities, however, say weaker growth is in line with their desire to shift the country’s economic growth model toward what they see as slower and more sustainable private-led demand rather than previously popular credit-fuelled state-driven investment projects. The IMF forecast that China’s economy would grow 7.6 percent this year.
AFP
