Kuwait’s budget balance is expected to return back to a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2017 due to a recovery in hydrocarbon revenue but then average 1.2 percent in 2018-19 as the government continues its investment spending programme, according to an economic insight 2017’ published by QNB Group. The country’s non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to accelerate to an average of 4.1 percent over 2017-2019 as the authorities implement an investment programme that aims to upgrade refineries and infrastructure. Opec production cuts, which QNB assume will last until the end of 2018, will depress non-hydrocarbon growth in 2017-2018. However, oil output will likely be quickly ramped up in 2019 to pre-cut levels, providing a boost to economic growth. Oil prices are forecast to recover as the market shifts from excess supply to excess demand in 2017, but prices will be capped by US shale costs, averaging $55/barrel in 2017, $58/ barrel in 2018 and $60/ barrel in 2019.
Inflation is projected to decline modestly to 2.9 percent in 2017 on falling rents, but then spike in 2018 with the expected introduction of value added tax (VAT). Thereafter, prices should ease in 2019 as the base year effect of the VAT dissipates and the rest of the basket is expected to be broadly stable.
The government is in the midst of an investment drive aimed at increasing refining capacity as well developing infrastructure; some signature projects include an expansion of the airport and the development of a national railway. Revenue should receive an additional boost from VAT implementation in 2018.
The current account is expected to return to an average surplus of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2017-18 on rising oil prices and then rise to 4.7 percent on a pick-up in oil production in 2019.
The capital and financial account (CFA) should witness a surplus of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2017 due to a $8bn international sovereign bond issuance. Beyond 2017, the CFA should return to a deficit as current account surpluses are invested abroad.
