DOHA: The Gulf dream for most people in Kerala, the south Indian state that sends the largest number of people to this region, is coming to an end as a survey suggests a steep fall in the number of people seeking jobs in the Gulf.
Job-seekers from Kerala continue to make their way to the Gulf but their number has lately been dwindling, says the survey. In the next four to five years, emigration from India’s most literate province to this region might stagnate.
In 2011, some 2.28 million Keralites emigrated to the Gulf, up from 2.19 million in 2008, 1.38 million in 2003 and 1.36 million 14 years ago, in 1998.
However, between 2008 and 2011, emigration rose barely 1.4 percent a year as against 4.8 percent between 2003 and 2008, and seven percent during 1998 and 2003.
The survey has been conducted by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital city. The Kerala Migration Survey is being done annually since 1998. The latest survey was done last year.
Myths about petrodollars flowing into Kerala households from their bread-winners and Kerlaites’ increasing dependence on remittances are galore but the survey busts many notions.
Only 17.1 percent of Kerala households received any remittances from overseas, contrary to the general impression that families in the state live off money transfers from their members based in the six Gulf states.
Hindu homes in the state benefited the least from the money inflow as only 11.4 percent of them received remittances.
The percentage for their Christian counterparts was marginally higher at 14.4.
Contrast this to Muslim households — as high as 36.6 percent of them received remittances from the Gulf in 2011.
Emigrants transferred to Kerala a staggering $9.41bn (Rs49,695 crore) in 2011, which works out to about $1,204 (Rs63,315) per household — slightly above India’s per capita income of a little over $1,000 on average.
The remittances account for roughly 31 percent of the state’s domestic product. Muslim homes received 47 percent of the total remittances, while Hindus got 36.4 percent, followed by Christians (17 percent).
The survey also reveals that there were an estimated 1.1 million ‘Gulf wives’ in Kerala — women whose husbands live overseas.
The survey says that this number has remained almost stagnant at one million-mark for the past 14 years, although the number of emigrants has gone up.
Outlining the reasons for declining emigration to the Gulf, the survey cites contracting working age population due to low birth rates as a factor. Rapidly increasing cost of emigration is another reason.
However, the most important discouraging factor seems to be that the gap between average wages between Kerala and the Gulf region is narrowing fast.
A recent survey of unskilled workers in the UAE shows an average monthly wage of Rs11,869 ($225).
Unskilled workers in Kerala could earn more or less the same amount, says the CDS survey.
The Peninsula
