LONDON: World oil prices finished on a high note on geopolitical worries in Syria, having begun the week on the back foot following news of strong Opec oil output, US shale production forecasts and Chinese demand fears.
Other commodities were dented somewhat by weak Chinese data and after the World Bank slashed its growth forecast for China’s economy this year to 7.7 percent from 8.4 percent. Markets were also roiled by fears of central banks pulling the plug on their extraordinary stimulus measures that are aimed at supporting global economic growth.
OIL: World oil prices spiked on Friday, lifted by geopolitical worries particularly in Syria, alongside the weak dollar which stimulates demand. New York’s light sweet crude rallied to $98.25 a barrel, reaching a level last seen on September 14, 2012.
“Supply worries as a result of escalating tensions in Syria, and the continued weakness in the dollar, helped drive WTI oil contract through the $98 level for the first time in nine months,” said IG analyst Brenda Kelly. Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July jumped to $106.64 a barrel, the highest point since April 5, 2013. However, the market had made a poor start to the week.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), citing secondary sources, said its output in May averaged 30.57 million barrels per day, up by 106,000 barrels from April.
“Oil prices dropped in the first part of the week, dragged down by strong oil production from both Opec and non-Opec sources,” said analyst Gary Hornby at energy consultancy Inenco.
“US shale oil extraction continues at very high levels, and the Energy Information Administration nearly doubled its estimates for US shale oil reserves from 32bn barrels to 58bn barrels.
“This, added to the Chinese economy suffering from a slowdown in growth rates and high US oil stockpiles, pulled oil back down to below $102 per barrel on Tuesday.” However, since that point, the market has rebounded sharply on growing worries about the oil-rich Middle East.
“Oil prices have since found support ... on the back of Middle Eastern tensions, with Syria and Libya at the fore,” added Hornby.
“Libyan oil production is beginning to suffer amid protests in the country that have already closed two export terminals and one major oil field, which could affect oil flows to Southern Europe and Italy in particular.”
Oil had also risen Thursday following positive economic news from the world’s biggest crude consuming nation. By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July rose to $105.93 a barrel from $104.68 a week earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate or light sweet crude for July rallied to $97.63 per barrel from $96.14 a week earlier.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold gained ground on safe-haven demand, also amid renewed market tensions over Greece.
“The Greek government’s decision to shut down state television to save money has given rise to speculation on the market about a possible vote of no confidence in the parliament,” said Commerzbank analysts.
By late Friday on the London Bullion Market, the price of gold increased to $1,391.25 an ounce from $1,386 a week earlier. Silver eased to $21.69 an ounce from $22.60. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum fell to $1,448 an ounce from $1,505. Palladium decreased to $728 an ounce from $754.
BASE METALS: Base or industrial metal prices fell in reaction to disappointing economic data in key consumer China. “Most important was the tranche of surprisingly weak Chinese data, including a collapse in trade, a deceleration in industrial production and slowing property investment,” noted Barclays analysts.
They added: “With China accounting for about 45 percent of base metals consumption, this lower growth potential at a time of improved supply suggests prices will stay under pressure.”
By Friday on the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months sank to $7,089 a tonne from $7,245 a week earlier. Three-month aluminium dipped to $1,858 a tonne from $1,953. Three-month lead dropped to $2,110 a tonne from $2,168.50. Three-month tin decreased to $20,240 a tonne from $21,000. Three-month nickel declined to $14,318 a tonne from $15,050. Three-month zinc eased to $1,858 a tonne from $1,908.25.
COCOA: Cocoa futures pulled back from gains made the previous week, as traders eyed the improving supply outlook in key producers in West Africa.
“Improving West African crop prospects took the top off last week’s strong gains,” noted Public Ledger analysts. By Friday on LIFFE, London’s futures exchange, cocoa for delivery in September eased to £1,510 a tonne from £1,557 a week earlier for the July contract. On New York’s NYBOT-ICE exchange, cocoa for September slipped to $2,301 per tonne from $2,341.
COFFEE: Prices sank to a fresh 2009 low in New York, weighed down by surplus expectations in Brazil.
“Coffee futures moved lower Wednesday, undermined by expectations of a large Brazilian crop and a large amount of unsold beans from last season,” Public Ledger analysts said.
By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, Arabica for delivery in September dipped to 125.65 US cents a pound from 127.25 cents a week earlier. On LIFFE, Robusta for September dropped to $1,764 a tonne from $1,867.
SUGAR: Prices sank to a fresh three-year low as the market was hit by strong Brazilian output.
“The downward price action in sugar continued to reflect Brazil’s massive sugar cane harvest,” Public Ledger analysts said.
By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, the price of unrefined sugar for delivery in July eased to 16.59 US cents a pound from 16.68 cents a week earlier.
On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for August dropped to $474.3 from $479.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Soya, maize and wheat prices drifted lower in unison. By Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, July-dated soyabean meal — used in animal feed — fell to $15.07 a bushel from $15.28 a week earlier.
Maize for delivery in July edged down to $6.47 a bushel from $6.66. Wheat for July eased to $6.82 a bushel from $6.96.
RUBBER: Prices slipped on lack of buying support and negative sentiment after the release of weak data from the world’s biggest rubber consumer China.
The Malaysian Rubber Board’s benchmark SMR20 fell to 230.35 US cents a kilo from 235.45 cents the previous week. AFP
