LONDON: Sterling fell for a second straight day against the dollar, hurt by the UK’s biggest balance of payment shortfall in over two decades and more government borrowing, with rising US yields also helping the greenback.
Official data showed Britain’s current account deficit, the broadest gauge of its trade with the rest of the world, widened to £20.7bn from £6.2bn in last second quarter. That is equivalent to 5.1 percent of GDP — the highest share since the third quarter of 1989, and much higher than the £13.85bn forecast.
The widening current account deficit may worry Bank of England policymakers who earlier this week flagged concerns about the adverse impact of a higher exchange rate on the recovery and efforts to make the economy more export-orientated and less dependent on credit-fuelled domestic demand.
BoE policymakers warned that a substantial further appreciation of sterling would pose “additional risks to the balance of demand growth and the recovery.”
Data also showed that public finances suffered in November with public sector net borrowing at £16.505bn, up from £15.586bn a year earlier.
The twin deficits dragged the pound lower against the dollar and offset any impact from a higher year-on-year reading of final third-quarter gross domestic product. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to $1.6330, compared with $1.6360 before the UK data was released.
“The blowout in the current account deficit isn’t great news and we get the feeling that most of the good news is already priced into sterling,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC World Markets.
“A move towards $1.6450 certainly appears to be a sell unless we get more data that shows that demand is holding up well in the economy.”
Part of the pound’s weakness was also because the dollar extended gains after the Fed voted to reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10bn. The reduction in Fed stimulus has lifted US bond yields and buoyed the dollar. An upward revision to US gross domestic product growth also helped the dollar in afternoon trade.
The euro rose around 0.1 percent against sterling to 83.52 .
Despite recent losses, the pound is on track to post gains against the dollar this year. Gains have picked up in the last six months as the UK economy improved faster than many of its European peers. Investors have priced in the chance of an earlier than previously expected rate hike by the BoE.
The BoE said in its forward guidance in August that it would not consider raising rates until unemployment fell below 7 percent, something it expected to happen by the end of 2016. It was forced to revise that message, stressing rates would not rise any time soon, after admitting unemployment could hit 7 percent as early as the fourth quarter of 2014.
This week data showed the jobless rate at 7.4 percent leading sterling overnight interbank average rates to price in the chance of a rate hike within 15 months, compared with two years before the numbers were released.
Analysts expect the BoE to quell these expectations by sticking to its pledge to keep rates low for longer.
Reuters
