BRASILIA: President Dilma Rousseff has regained a slight edge in Brazil’s presidential race after weeks of aggressive campaigning against environmentalist Marina Silva, who is losing some voter support in the campaign’s homestretch, a poll showed yesterday.
Rousseff would have 42 percent of the votes against 41 percent for Silva in a second-round runoff if the election were held today, a one point advantage that amounts to a statistical tie as it is within the margin of error of the survey by polling firm MDA.
Silva, who would be Brazil’s first black president, was leading by almost three percentage points in the previous MDA poll two weeks ago, just as the Rousseff campaign was unleashing a wave of negative campaign ads questioning Silva’s ability to lead Latin America’s largest economy.
Anxiety about Rousseff’s recovery in the polls has weighed on Brazilian financial markets in recent days. The Bovespa stock index lost more than 1 percent on the poll numbers and Brazil’s currency weakened past 2.40 per dollar for the first time in seven months.
After four years of sluggish growth and heavy-handed state intervention in the economy under the left-leaning Rousseff, investors are hoping the election will bring in a new president who will push for pro-market reforms that economists say are needed to lift Brazil out of its current rut.
Silva, a former senator and environment minister, surged in the polls after being thrust into the race last month following the death of her party’s original candidate in a plane crash. Recent polls have showed her support eroding, but she still looks like the best-placed challenger to unseat Rousseff.
A flurry of opinion polls in the next few days should confirm whether Silva’s surge was based partly on support from voters who have now switched back to Rousseff or Aecio Neves, giving the current president a chance to turn the race around.
“This week will be critical to see if Rousseff still has momentum to flip the lead,” said Joao Augusto Castro Neves of the Eurasia political risk consultancy, which views Rousseff as the favorite to win.
In yesterday’s poll, Silva’s support in a first-round vote dropped six points to 27.4 percent, whereas Rousseff slipped just two points, to 36 percent. Support for Neves, a pro-business centrist who has been stuck in third place, rose to 17.6 percent from 14.7 percent.
Reuters
