Moscow/jerusalem: Russia has said it will supply one of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile systems to the Syrian government hours after the EU ended its arms embargo on the rebels, raising the prospect of a rapidly escalating proxy war in the region if peace talks in Geneva fail next month.
Israel quickly issued a thinly veiled warning that it would bomb the Russian S-300 missiles if they were sent to Syria, as such a move would bring the advanced guided missiles within range of civilian and military planes over Israel.
Israel has conducted three sets of air strikes on Syria this year, aimed at preventing missiles being brought close to its border by the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah.
“The shipments haven’t set out yet and I hope they won’t,” Moshe Ya’alon, the Israeli defence minister, said. “If they do arrive in Syria, God forbid, we’ll know what to do.”
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, argued that the delivery of the S-300 system had been previously agreed with Damascus and would be a stabilising factor that could dissuade “some hotheads” from entering the conflict. That appeared to be a reference to the UK and France, who pushed through the lifting of the EU embargo on Monday night and are the only European countries considering arming the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).
However, London and Paris said they had not yet taken the decision to send arms, and would not do so until after the Geneva peace talks, tentatively scheduled for mid-June.
British officials said the lifting of the embargo had a political purpose, increasing the pressure on President Bashar Al Assad and his supporters, Russia and Iran, to make concessions at Geneva, most importantly to agree not to play a role in a transitional Syrian government.
In Ankara, a senior Turkish official portrayed the talks as a make-or-break moment, which would have to lead to practical steps towards the creation of transitional government without Assad and his closest entourage, unlike the first round of Geneva talks last year.
He said the key factor would be the US position on backing the rebels if Geneva failed to bring progress. At the moment, Washington is providing only non-lethal assistance to the FSA, but the Turkish official said that in US President Barack Obama’s meeting this month with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Obama showed readiness to change policy after more than 80,000 people had been killed.
However, while the White House appeared to welcome European moves to arm rebel groups in Syria, a spokesman said the US remained sceptical about the merits of further intervention.
The opposition Syrian National Coalition is holding fractious internal debates in Istanbul over its leadership and whether to go to Geneva, but Turkish officials say they are confident there will be opposition representation at the talks.
It is unclear, however, whether Iran will attend amid determined Saudi opposition to their participation. Riyadh has threatened to boycott the talks if Iran attends, officials in Ankara have said. Russia and some Syrian opposition groups argue Tehran must be included, in view of its heavy involvement on the conflict.
Expectations of significant progress in Geneva are slight. Western officials say that with unyielding backing from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, there is little incentive for Assad to make any concessions.
For its part, the opposition has agreed to drop its demand for Assad to step down as a precondition for talks to begin but is highly unlikely to accept a transitional government in which the Syrian leader or his family is involved.
The Guardian
