MUMBAI: Without explicitly saying so, the Reserve Bank of India has effectively begun to target inflation based on consumer prices, a dramatic shift in approach for a central bank that has struggled to manage the balance between growth and inflation.
The RBI unexpectedly raised policy interest rates by a quarter percentage point to eight percent on Tuesday.
In doing so, it cited a “glide path” towards lowering the consumer price index (CPI) below eight percent by next January and six percent a year later — targets that were laid out in sweeping proposals released last week to revamp the way monetary policy is conducted in India.
The core recommendation of the central bank panel headed by Deputy RBI Governor Urjit Patel was ultimately to bring down CPI inflation to four percent, plus or minus two percent.
While that would make policymaking more predictable and less prone to government pressure, it also means rates would stay high for longer as CPI inflation now stands at nearly 10 percent — the highest among major economies.
Annual wholesale price inflation, long the favoured benchmark in India, stood at 6.16 percent in December. “It appears that RBI is taking the responsibility head-on, saying that this is going to be their primary objective,” said Sonal Varma, economist at Nomura in Mumbai.
“It’s a game-changer,” she said.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who took office in September with an ambitious agenda, has long expressed an inclination towards adopting retail inflation as the main price gauge, although many bank-watchers did not expect him to take up the panel’s recommendations so quickly.
Inflation-targeting puts pressure on the government to meet its deficit-cutting targets, a challenge in a country prone to costly and inflationary spending programmes.
“The fact that RBI actually came out with an inflation number of 8 percent over the next one year consistent with Urjit Patel’s report in the policy review was a surprise,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.
Rajan stopped short of saying the RBI had adopted the panel’s inflation recommendation. The RBI did, however, formally adopt the proposal to review monetary policy every two months, from eight times a year previously.
“We want to bring inflation down and the Urjit Patel committee gives us a glide path to bring inflation down,” Rajan said in a conference call with analysts yesterday. “And, as we examine the details of the Urjit Patel committee report, we will take up more issues. And, as I said, some issues will have to be taken up with the government. Some we can do on our own.”
Although the government has not taken an official stance on the reform proposals, Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram last week said it was premature to make CPI the nominal anchor for monetary policy.
Reuters
