Dr Mohamed Al Rumaihi
The most actively traded questions in the Gulf over the last year are: Would the GCC pact ever unravel because of disagreements? What are the available options for GCC countries in the event that the deal falls apart? And how does the future look like in case it goes through and the GCC countries were able to compromise?
The writer of the above aforementioned questions was almost sure that in the end, it is necessary for GCC countries to reach an accord, not because of emotional but rather objective reasons. There are common sources of threats related to security, stability and development in the Gulf. If the “Rosary breaks” then there will be disastrous consequences for everyone and no one will be a winner.
The security of the region is subjected to serious repercussions, at the same time opening the way for the greedy to penetrate the interests and security of GCC countries, one after the other, after depleting their resources and taking advantage of their weaknesses. That was the opinion of “nearby” friends.
However, the “faraway” unsure friends had another opinion. They were betting on escalating disputes, widening gaps, ignoring commonalities, and generally wishing evil to happen.
Few weeks ago in Riyadh, the “faraway” lost their bet, since what GCC states hoped for happened, which is putting the controversy behind and ending this period of tension.
This news made all GCC people heave a sigh of relief because the concerns were huge and real.
The failure of the “faraway” to understand the truth has been proven. There are men behind each state in this region, who have the vision to foresee the hopes in the future and overshadow the dangers of the present. The “faraway” have also ignored that there is an intertwined and integrated social tissue that heals the wounds after injuries.
Today disputing who was right or wrong is history. It is left for historians to articulate in the future. The most important and persisting question today is — what next? In the new context, a comprehensible strategy is supposed to be built to resolve two issues of top priority, which are crystal clear. The first issue relates to the sources of threat to the Gulf States. The threats are almost coming from one direction. The second issue is to institutionally develop the Gulf in order to be more effective regionally and internationally.
Is it possible to address these issues? I think it is if the means for a political framework exist by promoting commonality, emphasising important issues, and ignoring trivial matters.
The details of those two essential concerns are diverse. Rebuilding the strategy requires identification of threats and these are two. The first is external, where terrorism flows out of it in various forms and regional ambitions walk by its side, wanting to interfere in the internal affairs of these countries in order to achieve their interests. The second threat is the worsening impact of civil wars whether in Syria, Iraq or Yemen, coupled with a thorny and unstable relationship with the US ally or other western allies.
This file needs a Gulf reformulation that is convergent and comprehensive; if not uniform, then at least consistent. Even if it requires roles’ distribution, so be it. However, the basic idea in this file is nearer and clearer uniformity, even by almost listing exact details if necessary. This necessitates diplomatic efforts, economic plans, harmonious press releases, and before everything else, a collective will.
Among the sources of threat to Gulf security is the flaw in the distribution of some domestic funds. I hope that some people do not rush in marginalising these internal challenges, because globalisation, social media networks, people’s aspirations, and the effect of changes around us and their dynamic interactions automatically link home and abroad in this time and age.
This file needs to be viewed in the context of gradual voluntary development, but what is crucial is to have a fair civil state with a modern legal system, working toward promoting shared citizenship values between all citizens in words and deeds.
This requires an internal gradual and systematic reform plan, portraying clear signals about the future, a genuine ability to adapt to new developments and insights convincing the wider public, and has a clear time agenda.
Reliance on security solutions for overdue anomalous protrusions, though it is useful in the short term, could lead to diverse effects if it is not accompanied by a regulated political action.
One of the threats is lower oil prices, which has shown a significant decline in recent months. This could be a blessing if we are able to deal with it properly, otherwise it’s a disaster.
The best solution to manage this situation is to reduce the role of the patriarchal or welfare state and to move towards an economic state, which will have a positive effect on Gulf societies. If matters are left without a collective strategic vision, this decline becomes a disaster for the state and society.
It is perhaps the appropriate time now to talk about an effective plan for a full economic integration of Gulf countries, by benefiting from positives and reducing negatives.
In order to cope with internal and external threats, there must be a central political command. Perhaps the idea of transforming the different bodies of the General Secretariat from what it is today into a Commission is desirable and is the most rational step.
In the framework of the desired strategic development, the General Secretariat of limited authority is unable to provide ideas and visions leading to the activation of the joint GCC-based institutions, or create and invent newly needed institutions for
the region.
The GCC is part of a larger scheme, which is the Arab system. The partially fractured Arab regime made bigger countries deficient in facing the challenges. The other part of their inability stems from the difference in the Gulf visions with regard to some urgent Arab issues.
At this critical juncture, it is only after uniting the Gulf vision that this GCC subsystem will be able to lead the Arab system to recovery and increase its immunity from general meltdown based on calculated or unexpected results, such as the Arab Spring.
During the next summit in Qatar, it will be more appropriate to delegate a working group through the Secretariat to develop a serious study and process towards the establishment of new Arab alliances that can reduce the risks and challenges, and draw a collective map to manage interactions in the region, which are huge and unprecedented reactions.
First, GCC citizens hope that the most recent accord is the last and final controversy, and there should be a quantum leap in the Council’s activities that are in favour of security and development of the entire region. This is perhaps the last bastions of stability in the region where deadly conflicts erupted, leading it to the worst abyss.
Finally, once again the GCC leaders have proved their support for prudence in purifying the political environment and lifting the region from turmoil.
The GCC leaders have wisdom, which everyone hopes is employed in favour of GCC and Arab citizens alike.
The writer is an academician and researcher in GCC affairs.
