TUNIS: The World Bank predicted that growth in Tunisia, where the economy continues to suffer from a political impasse and security problems, will not exceed 2.6 percent in 2013.
The forecast contrasts with the Tunisian authorities’ more optimistic growth estimates, of 3.0 to 3.5 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2014, and is one percentage point below the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast.
In a note entitled “Escaping austerity while accelerating growth,” the World Bank said Tunisia was paying the price for the political crisis, which was hindering the establishment of functioning institutions.
It also pointed to Tunisia’s growing security concerns “relating to terrorism” and Europe’s economic woes as factors impacting on the country’s own performance.
The Bank said investments, exports and tourism had “dropped or at best stagnated”, that phosphate production remained weak due to social unrest and that the agricultural sector had suffered from bad weather.
“The weakening of Tunisia’s macro-economic fundamentals is more and more worrying. Fiscal vulnerability has worsened, external deficits remain high and public debt is growing.”
The bank also warned that unemployment, a driving factor behind the January 2011 revolution, would stay high in the short time, given that “Tunisia needed growth of more than 4.5 percent to reduce the number of people out of work.”
The national unemployment rate stands at around 15 percent, but that figure rises to more than 30 percent among university graduates.
The economic malaise and political deadlock gripping the country, along with the rise in attacks by militants, which many blame the ruling Islamist party Ennahda for failing to prevent, has fuelled discontent in Tunisia, spurring a growing number of strikes and protests.
AFP
