Several questions arise about the situation Arabs are passing through now; will we witness the beginning of awakening or collapse? Or are we witnessing the start of a revolution, as many other countries have done, which includes violence and fragmentation?
We are in a long-term revolutionary stage that will change our reality and teach us lessons on how to deal with differences, political monopoly and financial corruption. Unfortunately, the changes won’t come about until we have passed through very hard phases.
While our world is shaking, the people are protesting and dreaming, which has not happened for a long time. Arabs have different views, which means they have got rid of the carelessness they once lived with.
Some of them seek stability at any price, especially those who have wealth and are afraid of losing it. Others want a new regime, even if this happens through violence, especially those who feel that they do not have anything to lose.
But the majority is waiting for a better, just and satisfactory democratic solution and modernisation and development.
Realistically speaking, the Arab world will not regain stability any time soon. The future has in store long-term conflict over the principles of justice and rights. It is hard to underestimate what has happened in Syria and Iraq, especially with Islamic State challenging the Sykes–Picot Agreement by making the two countries’ borders meaningless.
The emergence of an “entity” across the Syrian and Iraqi borders that does not represent any country or political system is a sign of how weak Arab regimes are, especially those established after the Second World War.
Despite the belief that the erasure of borders is temporary, it is alarming to see open borders in Syria and Iraq.
In the past, the Nasserists, Syrian nationalists, communists and Baathists had different views on the concept of unity. Now IS has brought to our attention the need for borders between Arab countries.
Events in the Arab world have confirmed how the strength of small groups is growing day by day in terms of their numbers and capacities. They even have the ability to challenge forces such as Hezbollah in south Lebanon and IS in Iraq. Following the 2011 revolutions, we will probably see more groups emerging.
This means that a new power could emerge, like the Houthis, charting for itself a path that could reach major cities and eastern Arab areas until it finally settles in Yemen, which has a large population.
While the Houthis are taking control of Yemen, another hidden power could suddenly arise, with the capacity to confront the Houthis and counter their moves.
Then the US won’t find the national support it used to have before, which allows it to intervene militarily. America’s capacities and enthusiasm are declining and the future will indeed be full of surprises.
The regression of Arab regimes does not mean that they have lost their strength and capacity. There is a logical history behind the strength and weakness of states and nations.
Weakness and disintegration are usually offset with initiatives that show persistence, accompanied by coercion and tyranny. Indeed, when the Ottoman Empire, which was known for its relative graciousness, regressed by massacring Armenians in 1915 and set up gallows in Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square, it didn’t prevent its decline and eventual demise.
If the oppressive behaviour of Arab regimes does not change for the better, with initiation of reconciliation and democratic reforms, a large segment of the population will turn into the opposition.
Repression is increasing in the Arab region, especially in the light of the death sentence passed against hundreds of dissidents in Egypt and the known and unknown abuses in various Arab countries. All this does not reflect progression but rather loss of confidence and a sense of insecurity among Arab decision-makers about the danger from any peaceful gathering.
In the current and next stage, the most dangerous reaction from Arab regimes would be to hastily fight pluralism and curtail freedoms and public space.
Until now, Arab regimes looked at the current situation as a matter of life and death. They have interpreted their people’s revolts superficially, ignoring the fact that these revolutions were the result of unemployment, poverty, political monopoly, denial of freedom, oppression of opposition parties and lack of avenues for peaceful protest.
They have hardly understood that the causes of past and future revolutions cannot be dealt with by spreading fear, but by carrying out serious reforms.
The problems of the Arab world are worsened by the fact that government organisations and institutions, the judiciary and security forces are mostly incompetent, with loyalists favoured over those who are competent.
The government structure is neither linked to a modern administrative, judicial or military system nor derived from dynamic reform; it doesn’t even resemble those found, for example, in Iran or Turkey.
Maybe if Arabs had succeeded in coming up with administrative and developmental reforms, the situation would have been much better. Arab governments, with a few exceptions, lack a vision for development and projects of a humanitarian character. The official Arab administration is without a soul. We hope that it will surprise us with something different before new volcanoes erupt.
One of the reasons for the weakness and vulnerability of Arab institutions is that they live with old tools in the hope that their problems disappear; but how can that happen when they have lost their effectiveness and influence and their corrupt officials are not accountable to anyone?
The recent drop in oil prices has revealed the poor planning and preparation of the governments.
Every crisis, whether related to nature, the climate, the prices of goods, wars or the needs and rights of the people, reveals the fragility of the Arab entity and its unwillingness to face new developments. The Arab state retains the mentality that resulted in the 1967 defeat.
In such a situation, the state will resort to violence (repression, torture, shooting, imprisonment and excessive sentences) against those engaging in peaceful struggle. This will inevitably lead to counter-violence by different sections of society.
The Arab region is full of a lot of anger resulting from unemployment, the arbitrariness and biases of government institutions such as the judiciary, army and the police, and the tight control exercised by those in power.
Years before the clashes, the hidden and obvious tyranny of the Syrian and Iraqi regimes led to the emergence of many violent groups in both countries, with new fans joining every day. Activists, revolutionaries and reformists who only recently rejected the use of violence had joined these groups.
The Arab state that resulted from the two world wars appears to be facing a section of society that is constantly increasing in size and seeking to get rid of the current systems without clearly defining what the next one looks like.
In the first phase of the 2011 Arab revolutions, the state was not the target but the corrupt individuals in it, as shown by what happened to presidents Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi and Ali Saleh.
However, things have changed over the past three years: the state, with its military, judicial and sovereign apparatuses, has joined the confrontation.
The second intermediate wave of revolutions will target many of the state’s institutions, which may be in some respects destructive with unforeseen circumstances. There are many powers still sitting on the fence, seeking to again spark a confrontation with the state in order to disassemble and reassemble it in a new way wherein:
The army would be turned into a force that guards the border, not controls the economy by setting up businesses, implementing construction projects, building roads and manufacturing kitchen tools, apart from indulging in corruption and money laundering.
The judiciary would be impartial and not biased towards the executive branch at the expense of the people, honest officials and the opposition.
Security forces must ensure justice and not infringe on human rights. The media should be neutral and not biased towards one side at the expense of another.
In the next revolutions, there will be revolutions of social classes, and revolts by the hungry and unemployed, revolutions for justice and dignity, and revolutions coloured by religion, tribe and sect; all reflecting the need for justice and equality.
So far the Arab reformist school, which is the quietest and most peaceful, has been regressing while the winners among the masses have been extremist, religious and sectarian revolutionary groups.
Our long era will be indisputably filled with anger, exclusion, tyranny, violence and revolutions. The devolution of power and democratic transition, reform and justice are still included in the folds of this stage. This is a continuous struggle since the idea of democracy with all its dimensions will not return until we pay a big price.
The author is an academic and political analyst
