Cape Town--Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa remains strong but is expected to slow for a second successive year in 2015 in the face of declining commodity prices and the Ebola epidemic, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
Overall, growth is projected to fall to 4.5 percent -- a substantial downward revision of 1.25 percentage points since the IMF's previous forecast in October 2014 -- before rebounding to 5.1 percent in 2016.
The continent's economies also face risks from low growth in major trading partners, a sharper-than-expected tightening of global financing conditions and mounting domestic security threats, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.
Oil exporters such as Nigeria, the continent's biggest economy, will be faced with a formidable challenge to cope with a "significant adverse shock" from falling oil prices, and their growth in 2015 has been marked down by almost 2.5 percentage points.
But the cheaper fuel is a favourable development for the rest of the region, though curtailed by the low commodity prices, with growth in the region's oil importers expected to average 4.75 percent.
In 2014, growth for the region as a whole remained solid at 5.0 percent -- down from the 5.2 percent recorded in 2013.
South Africa, the continent's most advanced economy, saw growth fall from 2.2 percent in 2013 to 1.5 percent in 2014, "on account of mining strikes and electricity supply constraints", the IMF said.
This year, the country's growth is expected to rise to 2.0 percent -- a 0.3 percentage point revision downward -- and 2.1 percent in 2016.
"Elsewhere in the region, growth, driven by strong investment in mining and infrastructure and by private consumption, held up well, especially in the region's low-income countries.
"Exceptions were Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where growth declined sharply as a result of the Ebola epidemic, which caused severe disruptions in agriculture and services and the postponement of mining development projects," the IMF said.
AFP
