At this historical juncture the situation in Yemen seems more complicated and explosive than ever. Some people think that the Houthi leadership and their ally, former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, cannot stabilise the political situation and restore civic life in Yemen.
Everybody, including the Houthis and members of the former president’s government, was involved in the major events that began on the eve of the Yemeni youth revolution in 2011 and ended with the stepping down of the president. This was based on a Gulf initiative that produced an agreement to elect Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi as president for Yemen until a new constitution was drafted by all political and social groups in the country.
However, the tactic used by the local, regional and international anti-revolution forces to change the political situation created after the revolution has destroyed any positive results thereof.
The last nail in the revolution’s coffin was the resignation of President Hadi, whose appointment was the sole positive outcome of the Yemeni revolution. The result of the parties’ dialogue was nullified by force and an agreement was reached between the presidency, political forces and the Houthis after the fall of Sana’a in 2014.
Afterwards, the Houthis or the Ansar Allah group, as they are called, along with their allies from among the followers of former president Saleh and a group of supporters from the military worked to tighten their control and gain influence in governorates in northern and central Yemen to impose a fait accompli.
The aim of this alliance (Houthis, Hadi and Saleh) was to snuff out the revolution and reinstate the government. But resistance from tribes, political and youth groups and the inhabitants of governorates has created a challenging situation.
Pushed by their own and Iran’s motives, the Houthis wanted to quickly establish themselves in positions of authority and take control of all strategic posts.
The Houthis’ coalition with Saleh is still in effect, strengthened by the absence of Hadi and the creation of a presidential committee controlled by them and members who are pro-Saleh.
It has become clear to tribal leaders, young supporters of the revolution and all political forces that reconciliation through dialogue is not possible; the country is moving towards a dictatorship led by the Houthis and Saleh. While political groups have left the talks table, youth movements have taken to the streets and armed tribes have established themselves in Sana’a, Marib, Aljand and Taiz, ready for confrontation.
The movement in the South has also moved to isolate Sana’a politically from the Southern governorates. The security forces and people’s committees have begun to control organisations, refusing to take orders from Sana’a. Hence, it is obvious that Yemen and everyone else are facing a real dilemma.
After the 2011 youth revolution in Yemen, the GCC countries took the initiative to find a political solution acceptable to all parties. But some Gulf countries let the anti-revolutionists move freely, until they joined hands with the Houthis to distort the Gulf initiative.
A few Gulf countries supported the Houthis and Saleh to empower them to counter the reformative trend of the youth. These countries thought at the time that supporting Saleh would bring back the old regime, but what happened was a surprise as the Houthis, supported by Iran and America, took over the government, leading Yemen into new sectarian strife that is a great threat to the interests of Saudi Arabia and all other countries from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.
Iran will probably have the upper hand in making decisions about Yemen; that’s why the Gulf states are in a big dilemma after the opportunity for a reconciliation in Yemen vanished.
Iran’s involvement and dilemma
The Houthis, who are supported financially and militarily by Iran, which gives it the opportunity to exercise its influence, now control Yemen. The political, economic and military expenditures of Iran are not small, even though oil prices have plunged, affecting its general budget and limiting its ability to support its allies abroad.
The extreme Shia background of the Houthis will create an extreme Sunni tribal opposition, which will increase the likelihood of a new sectarian civil war. This will be an additional cost for Iran and its Houthi allies. So, has Iran fallen into the quagmire of Yemeni politics?
US involvement and dilemma
The US largely agreed to the Gulf initiative and gave international guarantees to back it up, but tactically it selected what serves its interests, to find a power that can fight Al Qaeda in Yemen on its behalf, which in turn will secure maritime routes in the region.
The US and some Houthis have been in contact since 2009. Among its results is the end of the seventh war that Yemen launched against the Houthis, who are now considered a local political party, not a terrorist group, despite their use of armed force. This was followed by the fall of Amran and Sana’a to the Houthis.
The latest American statement after the recent developments, including the coup against President Hadi, proves that the American-Houthi relation is deeper than it appears.
America thinks that there is no relation between the Houthis and Iran, while its security sources confirm otherwise.
Ignoring what is happening in Yemen, America wants to make use of the Houthis to face Al Qaeda and secure its naval bases, while also aiming to compromise with Iran.
But the US is now in a big dilemma since the Houthis cannot do what the American administration wants. The Houthis do not know that their war with Al Qaeda will sooner or later reach Sana’a. Al Qaeda is capable of crossing borders and carrying out operations in the heart of the capital.
In addition, the Houthis, who are about to centralise powers and get more control of the state, won’t be able to face Al Qaeda as they do not want to engage in a sectarian war that would take away the political legitimacy they now enjoy.
Contrary to their media and political propaganda, the Houthis are hesitant to confront Al Qaeda.
The centralisation of powers by Houthis will not empower Iran or increase its ability to make strategic decisions in a region which the US considers one of the most important in the world.
So, the US was involved when it remained silent about the Houthis’ takeover, which is in line with the Iranian strategy related to its talks with America on its nuclear programme. The Houthis are indeed a winning card for Iran to pressure the US in their nuclear discussions.
Solution
As everyone in Yemen is in a dilemma, the political situation is tending towards a resumption of the revolution, with people counterattacking the armed anti-revolution movements. If that happens, things will return to normal and dialogue will take place again.
Then it will be difficult to act against Yemen and its people.
The author is a columnist
