The Arab Spring revolutions have opened a one-way street in our region.
Arab countries are the least democratic and suffer from lack of development and deep corruption. They have recently faced one of the strongest currents of change the world has ever known.
What is happening now in many Arab countries is linked to the nature of these changes, whereby one political system, overwhelmed by centralisation, mismanagement and lack of development, gives way to another before reaching a democratic state.
In previous decades, our systems and institutions did not get the opportunity to develop so that they could give equal rights to all citizens and enable harmonious coexistence between different sections of society.
We could also not attain development that would benefit the public. Instead, government security forces controlled the whole community, along with its social and legal structures, seeking a legitimacy that was not derived from free elections.
What we have been passing through since 2011 is a complicated, tiring, unclear and long process that will takes years, if not decades. But this process, even in the worst scenario, won’t take Arabs back to conditions that prevailed before the revolutions.
There will be no return to any kind of bullying, strangling of the civil society or curbs on the work of activists, which blocked democratic change and political reform. It is just that we had a transitional stage that brought surprises and big shifts.
The youth is the biggest social force moving the wheels of our region since the Arab Spring. This section of society has reached its biggest size in Arab history. That’s why its future is not secure. Its dreams most likely cannot be realised in the shadow of corruption and weak organisations.
It is a generation standing at a historical juncture at a time when difficult questions, helplessness, discrimination and racism are on the rise.
The young Arab middle-class citizen has started the most important journey of change since the beginning of the 21st century. This citizen has discovered how the world around him can be changed by social transformations.
This citizen knows of cases of corruption which he never imagined could occur in his homeland; cases of oppression and arrest, of the state’s decay and failure to complete the simplest projects.
This generation has begun to understand the discourse introduced to it through schools, the streets and the media. Such discourse does not match the reality.
At all levels, the new generation is living in shock and worry, which led some to rebel in 2011.
At the beginning of the Arab Spring — and despite the fact that Muhammad Bouazizi did not belong to the middle class — the revolutions were inspired by the leadership of middle-class youth.
The Arab revolutions revived optimism for a better future for Arabs and brought hopes of reform. But political conflicts began after the revolutions over filling in the gaps in the political scene. Then there was oppression and counter-revolutions, which created pessimism in the youth.
But most importantly, this pessimism started to spread from the middle class to the masses.
Though the young generation was shocked by the reaction of the entrenched forces, the youth still carry in their hearts courage derived from the first moments of the revolution and the changes that occurred in 2011.
When this strength transfers to the youth social powers that belong to the most poor and disadvantaged sections of society, it will have served the cause of revolution and change. This will be the fuel for change in the next stage.
There is a growing trend among the youth who took part in the 2011 Arab Spring revolts of accepting drastic and comprehensive change.
For this reason, we can call the current Arab generation the “Grand Conflict Generation”. This generation will pump more fuel into its conflict with Arab authorities.
In other words, we are about to witness widespread social and political conflict in the Arab world. This will happen due to intellectual shifts and politicisation of new segments of youth.
This generation of youth is getting angry and their numbers are increasing in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and other Arab countries and communities. It is in confrontation with many parties. That’s why this generation more or less looks like an adventurous person who does not take into consideration risks or losses. It looks like a wild beast that will destroy whatever stands in its way.
It is surely a different generation that will walk diverse paths until it finds what it needs, in its own way.
Take, for example, the youth in Syria and Iraq. You will find an extremist generation, like the followers of IS, but in other places you will find revolutionaries. In other places, they are peaceful reformers, Houthis, Islamists, or even jihadists.
This generation has a conflicting state of mind, but it is demolishing the Arab systems that could not be changed by democratic means.
This fight will spread. Whoever looks at the Arab scene now and focuses on the violence directed at communities and activists, will know how it establishes a base for a counter-revolution.
The non-violent revolutions against the Al Qaeda ideology are starting to enter a new stage in a long conflict.
Suppression of revolutions has benefited Islamists, jihadist and extremist trends of all types.
It has also boosted radicalism. At the same time, peaceful activists have retreated to the background.
Arab countries are fighting activists as they stifle any form of peaceful protest. They are unwittingly setting the stage for more violence and extremism. The battle between the school of violence and the school of peaceful change is still on in the Arab world.
Until now, there is no sign of any alternative. Maybe through the complicated historical process we are witnessing, we will one day find an alternative to what we are passing through.
The current Arab generation is a victim of tyranny. Amid the Arab deadlock, we need to find a way out that is legal, humane, just, democratic and progressive. At the same time, this generation is a threat to the Arab state that used to marginalise it and prevent it from attaining its rights, and where politics is monopolised by those who do not understand it nor play it right.
From all indications, this generation won’t calm down soon; it will become more angry, professional and experienced. The Arab world is full of surprises as Arab countries face unique challenges. They will either use unjust means that will lead to more anger and extremism, or will look for a serious project based on democratic principles, freedoms and a just economic environment. Only the latter will enable Arab countries to empower a generation that is taking its first independent steps in life.
The author is an academic and a political analyst
