Political observers have noted the increased violence of bloody internal conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Sudan. Some terrorist operations have begun in Algeria, and there are divisions in the remaining Arab countries along religious, tribal or regional lines.
Where are these conflicts leading to? To further divisions, or is this the beginning of a radical modification of the region’s map? What is the nature of the next transformation in case the region settles? Or will it witness a continuation of bloody conflicts?
Will the emergence of new sectarian, national, tribal or regional entities and militias solve the intractable problems of the Arabs?
Can the Arab regimes deal with all these challenges? Are those demanding change and raising religious or nationalist slogans to pacify ordinary people serious about fulfilling people’s desire for a government that represents all sections of society and seeks to eradicate corruption and nepotism, and works to ensure justice and equality?
Will some Arab countries become like Somalia, where multiple militias rule?
I don’t claim to have answers to these questions, but our condition is not happy. There is a civil war in Syria spilling over into Lebanon with the intervention of Hezbollah’s Shia militia in Syria to protect the authoritarian regime, which has prompted Syrian militias such as Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State (IS) to meddle in Lebanon.
Iraq’s civil war between Sunnis and Shias has encouraged the Kurds to exploit the deteriorating situation and enter Kirkuk, which will become part of their Kurdish state, rather than help rescue Iraq, of which they are one of the most important components.
Yemen’s Houthis, who make up only a third of the population, entered into a conflict with the government. It was a political dispute about improving their living conditions, but they turned it into a sectarian one and asked for Iran’s help.
Today, after seizing the capital, Sana’a, and rejecting the new prime minister, who was appointed by the Yemeni president, they have begun killing and displacing people based on their identity. The once united people are divided by a tribal mentality and corrupt politicians.
The Libyan civil war between the government and terrorist groups has ripped the people apart. There is also a possibility that Egypt will intervene in this conflict, which could make matters worse.
There is no doubt that new political entities will emerge from the ruins of what was destroyed by previous regimes, and will not enjoy security and stability because the common denominator between the emerging entities and militias is the enemy.
Iraq may split into several political entities, notably the Shia in the south, the Sunnis in the centre and Kurds in the north. However, these entities have begun to rupture since the Shias are more than one religious group and their militias are fighting each other; the same can be said of the Sunnis and Kurds.
This also applies to Syria since the opposition groups are fighting each other — the Free Syrian Army against IS and Al Nusra — even before the fall of the Assad regime.
What about terrorism? Religious terrorism is fragmented because it does not have a state project, but the international coalition led by the United States cannot agree on how to eliminate terrorism and defeat IS.
Finally, I see that the solution lies in the establishment of a free democratic system that separates religion from politics.
The author is a researcher and political analyst
