At a time when the coalition countries are busy fighting the Islamic State (IS), no one has thought about what will happen after IS is destroyed. Some things are still not clear.
Sunni tribal leaders who visited Washington recently confirmed that America had guaranteed them the formation of a strong and organised Sunni power. However, the Americans did not say anything about the status of Iraq’s Sunni provinces after the eventual defeat of IS.
Lieutenant General James Terry of the US Army stated that America’s allies had committed to send around 1,500 soldiers to Iraq to support Kurdish and Iraqi forces and advise them on how to fight IS.
It appears that the US and Iran are aiming at reinforcing the three Iraqi factions — the Sunni, Shia and the Kurds. Indeed, a strong unified Iraq no longer exists. Efforts are now on to turn Iraq into three states.
What will the future of Iraq look like? Is it possible to find a suitable political system that can unify all Iraqis? That was the goal of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Will such unity be achieved, although Iraqi politicians’ interests will be harmed if Iraq remains one entity, with all its regions and social groups sticking together.
All Iraqi politicians are thinking of their personal, sectarian or party’s interests at the expense of Iraq’s unity. Almost all Iraqi politicians are supported by either the US or Iran, and they are not thinking about Iraq’s unity. The proof is the unanimous approval of separate National Guard forces for each of the fragmented entities, with America’s support. How can we describe these forces as “national” when they have nothing to do with nationalism?
In the Sunni areas there are tribal military bases commanded by tribal chiefs. In the Shia areas, there are numerous Shia militias. The same thing goes for the Kurds, who are only thinking of how to support the Peshmerga forces defending their lands, and not the rest of Iraq.
Iraqi politicians have still not agreed on the political party law, which calls for transparency by demanding that all parties disclose their activities.
The rampant corruption in Iraq cannot be controlled as most politicians are deeply involved in it; topping the list are former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki and the Islamic Dawah Party.
Enmity between different social groups or regions and sectarian strife are not in the interests of any Iraqi. Will the political leaders redirect their efforts to saving Iraq by creating a consensual political system that serves everyone’s interests?
Modern Iraq’s experience confirms that attempts to impose one party, one opinion and one leadership will fail if the interests of all components of Iraqi society are not taken into account.
The author is a researcher and political analyst
