Despite my specialisation in politics, I cannot explain what is happening in the Arab world. Arabs have adopted an approach different from what we teach our students.
In ruling their countries, Arabs did not follow the modern Western countries, which chose democratic systems that brought them stability and prosperity.
Arabs have known only authoritarian rule wherein the loyalty of each Arab is to his tribe, sect and race, not his homeland.
Let’s quickly summarise what is going on in the Arab countries, beginning with Lebanon, which was always seen as a symbol of security, stability and democracy. But in reality there is chaos in the country due to the various parties and political hypocrisy.
Everyone is promoting their own narrow interests without considering the larger interests of Lebanon. The House of Representatives extended its term for two years and seven months; there is no elected president at the moment; and the government is dealing with issues on behalf of the president.
Ironically, the council of ministers cannot take any decision unless it is approved by all members of the government. This means that each minister has the power to veto a decision.
What about the republican system?
Some republics adopted dynastic leadership, as in Syria, while others, such as Egypt, Yemen and Libya, did not.
Rule by a single party brought about the idea of lifelong leadership. We hoped that the Arab Spring revolutions would change that situation, but it has become worse.
There was a so-called presidential election in Syria in which the president was re-elected.
The same happened in Algeria, where having one president for more than one term is the norm — the “our leader for life” model. This is indeed the favourite political system of many Arab regimes.
Today, Syria is on fire because of the civil war. But none of the country’s leaders would even consider stepping down in public interest.
We had hopes for Iraq after the fall of the tyrannical regime in 2003, but since then a sectarian system has controlled Iraqi politics.
The sectarian Dawah party is no better than the Ba’ath Party. The monopolisation of power by one group is tearing the country apart, with Sunnis, Kurds and other minorities at war with the central authority.
This has created a political vacuum and led to the emergence of extremist groups among the Sunnis and Shias. The various groups in Iraq disagree with the leaders of the ruling party.
Some Shias also reject the dominance of the Dawah party, which is working to protect Iran’s interests, regardless of whether Iraqis benefit from that. All this had led to the continuation of the civil war in Iraq and the emergence of terrorist groups like Islamic State and Al Nusra.
In Libya, the people dreamt of self-rule after the fall of the dictatorship. But today Libyans are divided, with the military fighting extreme religious groups that want to create an Islamic state, following in the footsteps of IS.
Ironically, there are two parliaments in Libya, only one of which is internationally recognised. Besides, the top court dissolved the elected parliament because it met in Cyprus, not Tripoli.
As for Yemen, the international community and Gulf countries intervened to guarantee its security and stability through elections and the formation of a parliament. Now we find that the former president, who fought the Houthis in six intense wars, has allied with them against the current government. The tribes, sects and parties are fighting each other in a chaotic war.
How about the Gulf countries? Will they enjoy security and stability, contrary to what other Arab states are witnessing?
They will not manage to remain stable because the Gulf states have become stronger than their societies. We have strong regimes but weak communities; the state doesn’t really need its citizens because oil resources, military power, the country’s security and economy are under its control.
All over the Gulf, expatriates constitute the main workforce. Citizens do not pay taxes or do military service; hence, the citizen’s role is insignificant.
Finally, what will be the future of the Arab countries and societies?
We do have extremist Islamist groups, such as the one that announced the Islamic State. They try to present themselves as an alternative to the current regimes. But the Islamic State does not have a project for creating a stable country; all its members care about is ruling over the community, even by killing and terrorising people.
The common factors among all Arab regimes is their failure to create a civil society that can sustain a civil state based on rule of law, a constitution and equality for all.
The author is a researcher and political analyst
