Syria talks face major hurdles

Damascus: The Syrian government and rebels held fast yesterday to their uncompromising stances towards each other, a day after a date was announced for them to sit down to peace talks in Geneva.
The opposition National Coalition repeated its long-standing rejection of President Bashar Al Assad having any role in the country’s future, while the regime said it would press on with its war against “terrorism.”
France’s foreign minister also said yesterday that long-delayed Syria peace talks due in January will take place without the presence of President Bashar Al Assad or radical opposition groups, 
“The purpose of Geneva-2 is not to have an armchair discussion about Syria, it’s to have mutual agreement between regime representatives — without Assad — and the moderate opposition in order to form a transitional government,” Laurent Fabius told French radio.
“It’s very difficult, but it’s the only solution that allows us at once not to have Bashar Al Assad and not to have the terrorists,” he said, referring to the jihadist members of Syria’s fractured opposition.
Fabius spoke a day after the United States and Russia threw their weight behind the long-delayed Syria peace talks, dubbed Geneva-2, which the UN said would finally be held on January 22.
International Syria mediator Lakhdar Brahimi said a list of participants has not yet been drawn up for the negotiations, which will bring the Syrian government and opposition to the negotiating table for the first time since the uprising against Assad erupted in March 2011.
Meanwhile, a car bomb killed 15 people at a bus stop west of Damascus, state television said.
The January 22 start of landmark Syria peace talks in Geneva will be difficult to keep as the war worsens and fallout spreads across the Middle East, analysts said. “At long last and for the first time, the Syrian government and opposition will meet at the negotiating table instead of the battlefield,” said UN leader Ban Ki-moon as he announced the date.
The conference would be the “best opportunity” to halt the bloodshed, according to US Secretary of State John Kerry, whose country helped broker the meeting with the UN and Russia.
But few observers see any chance of dousing the wildfires turning Syria into an inferno of conflict.
The conference guest list is not agreed, the international powers are divided and cannot control the carnage and bitterness between President Bashar al-Assad and the fractured Syrian opposition runs deep.
The UN says it can no longer estimate a death toll which it puts at well over 100,000. More than three million people will have fled to neighboring countries by the end of the year and UN envoy to Iraq, Nickolay Mladenov warned the UN Security Council on Monday of the growing spillover of extremists groups from Syria into Iraq where thousands have been killed this year.
Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Centre think tank, said the fact that the United Nations has announced a date is already a positive sign.
But he put the chances of the Geneva meeting going ahead at only “50-50” and said it was “hostage to the situation on the ground.”
“January 22 is still a long way off,” said Richard Gowan, director of New York University’s Center for International Cooperation.
“The Syrian army has been scoring new victories over the rebels, and could intensify its efforts to strengthen its military position before the talks.”
UN-Arab League peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi will meet with US and Russian officials on December 20 to try to sort invitations to Geneva.
Who will represent the rebels? Will the government delegation be empowered to take critical decisions? Should Iran, an Assad backer, and Saudi Arabia, supporter of the opposition, be included? “The answers to these questions will be critical,” commented one UN diplomat following negotiations.AFP