Jamal Khashoggi
By Jamal Khashoggi
The victory of Saudi Arabia and its allies(in Yemen) will take the politicians to the negotiation table, including Houthis if they agree to power sharing. It is hoped that this will be the means to build a better Yemen,and to eradicate dictatorship, domination by one political faction and sectarianism.
However, a victory of Russia and Iran in Syria would bring back the 30-year old, suppressive, sectarian regime that gave birth to this very revolution. It means that the situations of insurgency, division and confrontation with several groups directly or indirectly will continue. This situation will definitely threaten global security, because the conflict is no more just regional. It has become international due to the interference of Russia.
This situation is no less dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis or the 1958 Middle East crisis. It threatens to inflame the region for another decade or more. However, the location of this region is strategically very important for the international economy, whether there is an oil surplus in the market or not. So why does the US Administration not see that what Russia is doing has caused the failure of the Geneva talks, due to its ongoing fierce bombing of Syria?
It is very difficult to digest the idea that John Kerry is so simple that he believes that he could convince the Syrian opposition to accept a partnership with the Bashar Al Assad regime to fight against ‘terrorism’. However he seems to have suggested something along these lines when meeting with Riyadh Hijab, General Coordinator of Syrian Supreme Commission for Negotiations a week ago.
What happened to the Americans? Why do they not listen to Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Adel Al Jubeir who said “We will provide military support to the opposition if the talks fail”. At the same time Russia and Iran insist on imposing force against all opposition fronts except Islamic State (IS). Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglugave a similar statement regarding support for the Syrian opposition during his visit to Riyadh. Davutoglu was accompanied by the Turkish Military Chief General Hulusi Akarin his previous visit to Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Turkish media raised the question of whether Ankara is now starting to join the Islamic alliance that was announced by Riyadh last month.
This does seem to be the case. Everyone knows that both countries reject the victory of Russia and Iran in Syria. They (Saudi and Turkey) will come closer in a Sunni alliance that has emerged within the sectarian situation created by Iran, whose conflict will extend beyond Syria.
It is time to convince Americans that the Saudis and Turkish are serious and not bluffing with idle threats. Turkish intervention in North Syria or the supplying of surface to air missile by Saudi Arabia to Syrian rebels would be considered by Americans a threat to global peace. But they should also see the intervention of Russia and Iran in Syria in the same light.
The situation requires a quick and firm stand from the US to stop the game of Russia in Geneva, and in the areas of Anttakia, Aleppo, Daraa and other places where their bombs are causing huge destruction and misery for civilians. I don’t know what they have to do to stop Russian President, Vladimir Putin from becoming a ‘tiger’. However, now whatever they do is likely to be an improvement on the current situation. The presidential election result in America will be a crucial influence in what actions get taken, and on the other hand the outcome may also be influenced by this serious crisis threatening global peace.
For Saudi Arabia, the latest development is like British and France in 1939 who observed what Hitler did in Poland. They did not see any other option except to declare war on Germany. They could have just secured their borders and let Hitler storm the European countries around them, but this would have been like those who lock their homes, waiting for a monster to knock. The decision was tough and dangerous. Britain and France both paid heavy prices in terms of threats to national security and stability. However, after fierce fighting, with patience and determination they obtained victory,through the help of their ally the US who finally joined the war.
As Riyadh did not wait for Washington to move to curb the insurgency of Houthis and oust Saleh,probably it will take same stance in this case, but not in the same war or intervention,- instead now in Syria. It is better to not lend an ear to what is being advised as necessary actions for the sake of global peace. This is the responsibility of US and the great nations. The responsibility of Saudi Arabia before its people is to secure the nation. The victory of Russia and Iran in Syria will have a negative impact on the region. Luckily there is a large country (Turkey) in the region that shares the same concerns and worries. The Russian, Syrian and Iranian victory would mean their presence permanently along Saudi’s southern border. It would also enable Kurds to make their influence felt in any country.
Why can the US Administration not see these things? Is this a withdrawal policy that makes Obama to be proud when he will write his diary-explaining that how he rescued his country from the sectarian wars of the Middle East? We should not waste too much time analysing this matter. It should not be any longer be about US involvement in the protection of our national security.
In Yemen, we took the initiative and were brave, and so Washington cooperated with us,whether wholeheartedly or reluctantly. However, we should not take its cooperation for granted. It is better to end this war as soon as possible. There is enmity inside the sympathy, waiting for a loophole to turn the matter against us. Yemen and Syria are battlegrounds for us and for them also.
We should not be apprehensive. There is enough evidence to say that what is going on in Syria threatens global peace. The impact of the Syrian war is wide, so that even we are affected. The extremist Austrian freedom party had an unprecedented victory in the council of the liberal capital. The world should take note of this example. In addition, the right wing extremists won the elections in Poland and Hungary, as they became apparent role models in order to grab power. The future has been imagined fearfully by Americans and Europe,and even in Jordon where the matter of refugees is no more just a humanitarian issue but now a political matter.
The King of Jordan and his government are worried about this. King Abdullah described the matter as nearly at the point of ‘bursting’, when explaining the situation of his country in dealing with the floods of refugees. The Jordanian government said that, due to the destruction of the war in Syria, the chances of returning a million refugees to their hometowns is almost zero. They expect that some will remain in Jordon, whose economy is permanently weak, and that the remaining refugees will probably go back after 17 years. Daraa and countryside of Damascus were destroyed completely. This means that the refugees belonging to these areas cannot be returned even if the war ends tomorrow, regardless of who ‘wins’.
We should include these painful details in our discussions with the US Administration, to convince it to be part of a Saudi-led war and to keep pace with political and military activities in the region. The US is important and it is capable of confronting Russia, and we need to put pressure on them. We should raise the issue of the threat to global peace. The issues of Syrian refugees and status of Muslims in the American community should be part of the agenda for the forthcoming US presidential election. We should convince them that the Syrian issue is not only a concern for Syria but it has impacted greatly on Jordon and Lebanon. The impact of the refugees from the war has also reached Eastern Europe and changed the political mood. Pakistan is also affected by the war in Syria and it might divide the community in two along sectarian lines. Syria is not an issue for Saudi Arabia only. Both our national and global security is connected with global peace, which we all have to work hard for.
