Dr Khalid Al Dakhil
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was subjected to two terrorist bomb attacks in less than a week. These days, in particular, a question keeps coming back to my mind — whether this will be the beginning of a chain of attacks that could target the country.
Saudi Arabia has been the target of terrorism since the mid-nineties of the last century. Its security services have achieved great success in foiling terror plots. So, how did the terrorists manage to avoid the scrutiny of Saudi security this time?
The hallmarks of Saudi security’s success were the preemptive strikes against the terrorist cells before they managed to execute plots.
But, why didn’t this preemption happen this time?
Another question relates to the bombings in Qudaih and Dammam, in the eastern region, that specifically targeted Shia citizens. Does this mean that the new wave of bombings would be limited to the eastern region?
In the recent past, the terrorism of Al Qaeda or the first wave was concentrated in the central region, and mainly targeted security personnel and institutions. At that time, there have been bombings and attempts to bomb places, but all were limited to oil installations and American sites.
Now it seems that Shia citizens are the target, while it is early to exclude targeting oil facilities once again, and the expansion of terrorism to other regions of Saudi Arabia.
The idea that the state was the target of the first wave refers to the political root of the phenomenon. While the fact that Shia citizens are the target of the second wave indicates the sectarian root of the phenomenon itself.
Targeting the state does not contradict with targeting one of its components. What differs here is the circumstance and regional framework, and therefore the focus is different, while the ultimate goal remains the same.
Saudi Arabia is still the target of Al Qaeda as has been seen in the past, and a new target for several parties in the present. But, what does this difference refer to?
It refers to sectarianism in the regional context. It is not local, whether in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else. This sectarian tension is the main engine of the phenomenon of terrorism in its second wave. The indicators on that count are many; like how Iran is using the militias to extend its influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon; the emergence of Sunni militias in Iraq and Syria to fight the Shia militias and local government behind them. Sunni fighters from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia and others went to Syria to join the Sunni militias there.
In the midst of this conflict, the parties which are interested in targeting Saudi Arabia are Iran, the Islamic State (ISIS), Hezbollah, and the Houthis. ISIS is ideologically hostile to Iran, and the reverse is also true, but Saudi Arabia is the biggest target of both — ISIS and Iran.
It is where the interest of both these parties meets for weakening the Kingdom. Hezbollah is an Iranian arm in the Levant, and since the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm, this party on behalf of Iran launched on a daily basis a frenzied media campaign against Saudi Arabia.
On its part, Iran believes that the fate of the Houthis relies on its role and military aid, their ideology — which is sectarian — is born in a local and regional environment that is not favourable to them ideologically and politically.
The Houthis are a small minority, even in the sectarian context, among the Zaidis. Add to that the poverty and economic resources of Yemen, which does not allow the Houthis to achieve their ambitions without external support.
The context of the events and the analysis lead us to the same answer: It is all about sectarianism. The same thing happens in many Arab countries, which means we are facing a tidal regional wave.
Fortunately, Saudi Arabia will not allow the transformation of religious affiliation to militia. It will also not allow the control of militia to its southern
neighbour, Yemen.
It is also good that there is a high level of awareness among Saudis on the danger of sectarianism, which was revealed after the last two crimes.
Third, the Saudi government fights terrorism regardless of sectarian identity. Egypt is doing the same.
Clearly, the region suffers from a large political and ideological vacuum that attracts sectarianism and terrorism, which also attracts foreign interventions that some of them claim, or call for, fighting terrorism, while others employ sectarianism to spread terrorism.
The writer is an academician, columnist and political analyst.
