Dr. Khalid Al-Shafi
How does the Western world think when there is talk of politics and the economy in the countries of the Arabian Gulf? We have to take a closer look at what research and study centres talk about, particularly the ones belonging to political streams that have special, utilitarian interests. My attention was directed to a report published some time ago by Heritage Foundation, a think tank that expresses the ideas and ideology of neoconservatives.
This report presents the imaginary scenario of a future crisis involving disruption of oil exports from the Gulf states. It also puts forward plans for a collapse in oil production, or its disruption, as a result of abrupt political or social developments.
Heritage Foundation drew on previous simulation exercises it has conducted in 2006, 2008 and 2010 to evaluate the strategic and economic effect on oil supplies if there is a military strike on Iran. This time the think tank studied the impact if Gulf oil production was hit at its core, which would lead to complete disruption of oil production for a year and a decline of about 8.4 million barrels per day in production. This is followed by two years of recovery.
It presented some emergency procedures to the US administration in case something unexpected happened, indicating that Russia and Iran would try to exploit the crisis to increase their influence in the world while American leverage is diminishing, particularly in the Middle East.
According to the right-wing American think tank’s report, this scenario will have economic consequences for the US, as it is expected that US retail fuel prices will increase to more than $6.5 per gallon. Crude prices will jump from $100 to $220 per barrel.
After presenting what allies and adversaries will do to face the consequences of such a scenario, the researchers suggest what would need to be done if Washington decides that military intervention is inevitable for the protection of its interests. The US may need to support civil authorities, launch anti-terror operations, ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is kept open, deter Iran from filling the power vacuum and ensure that a hostile radical Islamic regime does not take over oil infrastructure in the Gulf region.
One of the emergency measures the report proposes to Washington is the release of some strategic oil reserves in coordination with other countries. Moreover, it suggests the exploitation of the resources of leading independent services providers for energy and related infrastructure markets and rationalisation of domestic energy consumption to reduce the consequences of the crisis and facilitate the process of recovery.
The question is why there are no corresponding studies and analyses in the Gulf and Arab world?
How does the Western world think when there is talk of politics and the economy in the countries of the Arabian Gulf? We have to take a closer look at what research and study centres talk about, particularly the ones belonging to political streams that have special, utilitarian interests. My attention was directed to a report published some time ago by Heritage Foundation, a think tank that expresses the ideas and ideology of neoconservatives.
This report presents the imaginary scenario of a future crisis involving disruption of oil exports from the Gulf states. It also puts forward plans for a collapse in oil production, or its disruption, as a result of abrupt political or social developments.
Heritage Foundation drew on previous simulation exercises it has conducted in 2006, 2008 and 2010 to evaluate the strategic and economic effect on oil supplies if there is a military strike on Iran. This time the think tank studied the impact if Gulf oil production was hit at its core, which would lead to complete disruption of oil production for a year and a decline of about 8.4 million barrels per day in production. This is followed by two years of recovery.
It presented some emergency procedures to the US administration in case something unexpected happened, indicating that Russia and Iran would try to exploit the crisis to increase their influence in the world while American leverage is diminishing, particularly in the Middle East.
According to the right-wing American think tank’s report, this scenario will have economic consequences for the US, as it is expected that US retail fuel prices will increase to more than $6.5 per gallon. Crude prices will jump from $100 to $220 per barrel.
After presenting what allies and adversaries will do to face the consequences of such a scenario, the researchers suggest what would need to be done if Washington decides that military intervention is inevitable for the protection of its interests. The US may need to support civil authorities, launch anti-terror operations, ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is kept open, deter Iran from filling the power vacuum and ensure that a hostile radical Islamic regime does not take over oil infrastructure in the Gulf region.
One of the emergency measures the report proposes to Washington is the release of some strategic oil reserves in coordination with other countries. Moreover, it suggests the exploitation of the resources of leading independent services providers for energy and related infrastructure markets and rationalisation of domestic energy consumption to reduce the consequences of the crisis and facilitate the process of recovery.
The question is why there are no corresponding studies and analyses in the Gulf and Arab world?
