There are mountains of challenges facing the Gulf from all sides, the latest of which was the military manoeuvres carried out by thousands of Houthis earlier this month in Kitaf area in Saada governorate, which borders Najran in Saudi Arabia.
According to the Houthis’ spokesman, the goal of the exercise was to prepare for any challenge and initiate military operations.
The manoeuvres came in the midst of a political situation that looks like it was created in response to Iranian demands, which have been warmly received by the Houthis in order to get closer to Tehran and receive Iran’s economic support. A Houthi delegation recently returned from Iran after a 10-day visit. They signed several strategic agreements, including one for a year’s worth of Iranian oil supplies, in addition to renewing their loyalty to Tehran.
The timing of the manoeuvres coincided with Iranian war games in the Strait of Hormuz. But Tehran didn’t succeed in showing its strength as much as it did in hiding its vulnerability to the United States, and that was the intent.
Although the aim was to test new weapons, Iranian generals’ statements declared otherwise. It should be noted here that unlike in most countries, Iranian generals make more statements than their politicians.
The Iranian manoeuvres were a message to Washington, primarily related to their nuclear talks. They were also a political message to those who use the Strait of Hormuz and a message to the P5+1 states that have military equipment stationed on the shores of the Arabian Gulf.
The difference between the Iranian and Houthi manoeuvres was in size. Tehran involved the majority of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and several military divisions, including ground, artillery, missile, air and naval forces.
The Houthis used heavy weapons, including tanks, artillery and Katyusha rockets. Also, the Iranian war games continued for several days, while the Houthis finished theirs in only a few hours.
I estimate that the recent Houthi manoeuvre were nothing but an introduction to the application of new strategies pursued by Tehran. Therefore, we’ll often see the Houthis demonstrating their strength, with or without reason, since they don’t believe in using soft power. They can uplift their innate savage nature only by moving from using machine guns to using rockets.
What happened was a military manoeuvre deliberately provocative to neighbouring countries. Therefore, it was short enough to give political and military messages to the Arab Gulf states.
These manoeuvres were carried out to justify the increase in Iranian military aid to the Houthis, who will hold these exercises whenever asked to show their strength when negotiating with their rivals. In addition, such manoeuvres have a psychological and political impact.
When we try to find out what was behind the Houthi manoeuvres, we realise that the rules in this region have changed. Even the Houthis noticed after performing their manoeuvres that they increased confusion in the regional political scene, allowing them to change the rules.
Next, the Houthis will probably try to get Saudi Arabia preoccupied at its borders, and try to divert the attention of the decision-makers from what is happening in the north and east.
What is worrisome is that such manoeuvres might take place later in sync with Iranian war games in the other corner of the Arabian Peninsula, thereby closing Hormuz and Bab El Mandeb at the same time.
Iran has some of the most sophisticated sea mines and announcing manoeuvres on both sides of the Arabian Gulf for planting and clearing mines in both straits would be enough to subjugate the world.
The author is CEO of Gulf Monitoring Group
